Including supporting charts with our catalyst call
In addition to our catalyst call on TROW published this morning, we areincluding supporting charts that show TROW's relative performance byMorningstar Category versus peers with the lower percentile & more greencolor indicating better performance, while higher percentiles & more red colorindicate underperformance.
Basis for the short-term investment idea:
T. Rowe Price (TROW) is one of just a few publicly traded asset managerstocks with an improving organic AuM growth profile that appears increasinglysustainable for at least the intermediate-term. This is supported by TROW’srelatively strong investment performance, an advantageous competitionposition in financial advisory distribution channels (based on reduction of fundson industry platforms that puts more money in motion toward betterperforming and cost-competitive funds like TROW’s), and a variety of organicgrowth initiatives embarked upon over the last 1-2 years, including moreaggressive placement on fund distribution platforms & more expansivewholesaling efforts, along with a more concerted asset allocation productconstruction & marketing effort. Moreover, we are noticing firms withstronger, sustained AuM organic growth rates (e.g. ~3% or above) arecommanding higher P/E valuation premiums to peers, a trend that began lastyear.
We expect TROW to outperform asset manager peers through at least 2Qearnings season (expected TROW reporting date is July 25), with 2Q resultsthat we think will at least slightly beat Consensus and appear strongerfundamentally than peers. Key areas should be 1) organic AuM growth near3% vs. 0% for the group on a median basis, 2) op margin expansion of30bps sequentially and 150bps on a year/year basis, & 3) asset appreciationover 2% in 2Q vs. flattish for the group driven by an asset mix geared tofavorable performance areas in 2Q, mainly US equities, growth style, andpresence in small-cap (vs. weak……[德意志银行]