Time spent with new executives helped our understanding of SJM's positioning
Yesterday, we hosted an investor trip to Smucker's headquarters in Orrville,OH. Management in attendance included President & CEO Mark Smucker, CFOMark Belgya, and new business heads Joseph Stanziano (Coffee), Tina Floyd(Consumer Foods), and David Lemmon (Pet Food & Snacks). Given the recentexecutive changes, we found the time spent with marquee senior managementvery helpful in understanding the company's current position and outlook. Topicsof discussion included the sale of the U.S. baking business, increased investmentsfor growth in the form of greater emphasis on narrower platform focuses,Canadian tariffs, K-cup margins, relationships with large retailers and the AmazonEffect from a pet food category perspective, and the current M&A landscape.
Tweaking estimates off baking divestment & potential Canadian tariff headwind
Before Monday's announcement of the U.S. baking business sale to BrynwoodPartners, we assumed an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.5x, an estimated transactionvalue of $660m and after-tax cash proceeds of ~$625mm. By our math, the$375mm transaction value implies a multiple of ~7.5x U.S. baking's 2018 EBITDAof ~$50mm, or an EBITDA margin of ~13.5%, reflecting the business's decliningvolumes and #3 market share position owing to the category's high level of tradeand Smucker's lack of investment in its baking brands. Sales to Canada accountfor ~$500mm of total company annual sales, of which ~55% is produced in theU.S., representing a ~$275mm exposure to Canadian tariffs ranging from 2%-10%on a variety of American consumer goods categories imported into the country.We're estimating the rough volume impact to Smucker's FY'19 internationalsegment sales to be ~$10mm. Our total company organic growth estimate is now1.1% vs. 1.2% previously (vs. guidance of 2%), and our net sales growth estimateis now 8% vs. 8.1% previously (vs. implied guidance of ~9% excluding baki……[德意志银行]