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发表于 2018-07-12 10:09:35 股吧网页版
Quick Take – PEP's 2Q18 Results 查看PDF原文

研报日期:2018-07-12

  百事(PEP)

  How do we expect the market to react?

  Overall, PEP reported solid 2Q results this morning—a headline beat on revenue,gross margin, EBIT, and EPS vs. both us and consensus—while reiterating fullyearguidance of $5.70 in EPS (vs. DBe $5.62 and consensus at $5.66). Especiallyin light of some de-risking ahead of results, we expect a positive stock reactionin response. Organic growth upside ( 2.6% reported; 50 bps vs. our model)was driven mainly by FLNA ( 4% vs. 3%) and ESSA ( 7% vs. 3%), partiallyoffset by Quaker (-5% vs. -2%) and LatAm ( 3.5% vs. 4%), with NAB in lineat -1%. As expected, PEP's EBIT included a ~$145m gain from refranchising inThailand ( 5 pts on EBIT), lapping last year’s Britvic gain (-3 pts on EBIT), whichcontributed ~40 bps net to operating margins. Additionally, certain insurancesettlement adjustments in NAB, LatAm, and QFNA also benefitted EBIT by ~ 1pt (~ 25 bps on operating margins). Still, the overall quality of results was highversus expectations, with FLNA top-line strength providing important mix benefitsto overall gross margin. Moreover, the magnitude of PEP’s 2Q beat will allowStreet estimates to drift lower in 2H (something more bearish investors have feltnecessary coming into 2Q results), while still aligning with PEP’s higher full-yearguidance.

  Questions on the call are likely to focus on FLNA momentum, PEP’s outlook onNAB reacceleration in 2H, and any strategic options PEP is considering relatedto NAB longer-term. We also expect some focus on emerging market conditions,ongoing productivity efforts, and PEP’s core earnings “quality,” which continuesto be aided by one-time gains and adjustments.

  Questions on the call are likely to focus on FLNA momentum, PEP’s outlook onNAB reacceleration in 2H, and any strategic options PEP is considering relatedto NAB longer-term. We also expect some focus on emerging market conditions,ongoing productivity efforts, and PEP’s core earnings “quality,” which continuesto be aided by……[德意志银行]
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