mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">基本面分析   

mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">标准普尔将美国的最高级别信贷评级展望下调至负面,mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">白宫上周宣布未来12"Times New Roman"">年削减4万亿美元预算赤字的计划,mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">主要是通过缩减支出和提高对富人征税来实现.mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">国会共和议员则希望加大支出缩减幅度,mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">不提高税赋. "Times New Roman"">这导致金价近日处于利涨趋势。其次世界其他主要央行以升息回应通胀之际,"Times New Roman"">美联储依然维持其宽松货币立场. "Times New Roman"">他们认为能源和大宗商品价格上涨将是短暂的."Times New Roman"">失业率高企,缺乏通胀心理,mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">且通胀水平略高于历史低位,"Times New Roman"">都证明美联储应继续大力支持经济. "Times New Roman"">这导致金价近日处于调整状态。另外欧元区的债务危机升级, "Times New Roman"">希腊央行称,债务重整将导致"mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">灾难性後果"."Times New Roman"">希腊债务缠身,"Times New Roman"">预计到2013"Times New Roman"">年债务相当于国内生产总值GDP"Times New Roman"">的比例将升至160％. "Times New Roman"">现在希腊债务负担高达3,250"Times New Roman"">亿欧元,且远高于阿根廷在2001mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">年底违约时的债务水准. "Times New Roman"">欧盟债务危机在2011"Times New Roman"">年初短暂缓和下来後,"Times New Roman"">如今又卷土重来. "Times New Roman"">这导致近期黄金逼险资产处于强劲势头。

"Times New Roman"">今日：悉尼--"Times New Roman"">澳洲央行公布4"Times New Roman"">月货币策会议记录

mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">巴西利亚--"Times New Roman"">巴西央行利率会议（"Times New Roman"">至4月20mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">日）

mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">斯德哥尔摩--"Times New Roman"">瑞典央行举行货币策会议（"Times New Roman"">至4月20mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">日）

总结：美国预算赤字与美联储宽松策导致金价处于利涨趋势。

技术面分析

mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">日线图：趋势线上显示金价向上受阻，处于震荡回调状态。从指标Volumes上看金价多头交易率在4572mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">的低率位。而从指标W％R"Times New Roman"">上看金价处于空头趋势状态。4"Times New Roman"">小时图：趋势线显示金价回位震荡调整。从指标Volumes"Times New Roman"">上看金价处于空头交易率上升趋势。而走指标W％R"Times New Roman"">上看金价依然处于空头趋势状态。

mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">风险面分析

1．  "Times New Roman"">仓位风险：下单保证金占总资金5％"Times New Roman"">以内，处于安全仓位。

2．  "Times New Roman"">操作风险：多头交易风险占操作风险60％"Times New Roman"">，空头交易风险占操作风险40％"Times New Roman"">。

3.       
信息风险：欧元区未经季节调整经常帐赤字对金价影响较大。